Reports are coming in that the IPCC meeting in Stockholm to finalise the AR5 SPM is running behind schedule and that this might even delay the publication of the SPM expected on Friday morning.
A first hint of this was in a tweet from Met Office climate scientist Mat Collins on Tuesday, “We are not allowed to tweet anything of substance. I can only perhaps say that progress is slow.”
Then on Wednesday, an organisation called IISDRS said in a tweet “Plans to continue discussions well into the night as WGI is very behind the schedule”. On their web site, which seems to be a semi-official report on the proceedings, they said “From dawn til late into the night on Wednesday, the IPCC Working Group I (WGI) continued line-by-line discussions of the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM)”. If you’re wondering what the meeting or any of the delegates look like, there are plenty of pictures there.
Now there’s an article in the Guardian, IPCC climate report: last-minute Stockholm talks make slow progress, talking of “fraught negotiations”, “likely to go on all through the night”.
Bryony Worthington tweets: “Hearing there may short delay in publication of climate report tomorrow due to methodical process, not disagreements”. Yes, I’m sure she’s right, there couldn’t possibly be any disagreements, could there.
Now Spiegel is reporting (in German) that the meeting is not going to finish on Thursday evening as planned but will go deep into the night, and it’s not certain that the report will be out on Friday morning as planned. Apparently there are differences between different groups of countries, for example Brazil vs the oil producing Gulf states. Spiegel says there was much debate about the warming pause, and disagreement (sorry Bryony) about the projections.
It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall. It’s tempting to speculate that there’s a battle between the political activists calling for a decisive message and call to action, and the more serious scientists saying we mustn’t exaggerate and must make clear the uncertainties.
David Rose tweets from Stockholm that his hunch is that it will be published on time or only slightly delayed.